Market Analysis
Oil slumped below $62 on demand worries, while the USD strengthened, pressuring NZD, AUD, and CAD. USD/JPY held steady after the U.S.–Japan FX stability pact. Traders eye U.S. Michigan Sentiment data for fresh Fed cues, with risks skewed to USD resilience and further commodity weakness.
Markets await the US CPI release, with expectations of rising inflation amid tariffs. The dollar remains rangebound, gold nears $3,650, and silver hovers above $41 on safe-haven flows. GBP/USD and AUD/USD consolidate as traders weigh Fed rate cut bets. CPI outcomes will likely dictate near-term FX and precious metal moves.
By Tickmill
Daily Market Outlook, September 10, 2025
Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group
Munnelly’s Macro Minute…
By Octa
- NZD/USD advances to near 0.6000 as the NZ Dollar capitalizes on an upbeat market mood.
- Inflation in China declined at a faster-than-expected pace in August.
- Investors await key US PPI data for August.
By OEXN
Robinhood (HOOD) shares jumped over 15% Monday to a record high after news it will join the S&P 500 (^GSPC) on Sept. 22.
Gold regained strength near $3,620 as Fed rate cut bets and safe-haven demand supported precious metals, while silver edged toward $41.00. The US Dollar Index stayed capped below 98.00 after weak NFP revisions, with EUR/USD slipping to 1.1700. AUD/USD held above 0.6650 on firmer commodities. Traders now eye U.S. CPI/PPI data and Fed guidance to set the next market direction.
The dollar slid below 97.50 on Fed cut bets, lifting silver near $41.50, oil above $62, and supporting commodities. USD/JPY held near 147.00 despite Japan’s tariff relief, while the Nikkei consolidated after profit-taking. Markets remain data-driven, with U.S. CPI and Fed signals set to dictate the next move.
By Deriv
Not right away, according to analysts. According to recent data, US manufacturing is showing signs of life - the ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.7 in August and new orders returned to expansion at 51.4 for the first time in seven months - but the dollar remains under pressure. Tariffs, softening employment, and the prospect of Fed rate cuts all weigh on its outlook. So, while the manufacturing slump since 2022 may be drawing to a close, the greenback’s recovery is far from guaranteed.
Key takeaways
- ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.7 in August, with new orders at 51.4, the first expansion since January.
- Tariff pressures remain high, with 75% duties on Chinese imports and 25% on Canada, Mexico, and the EU, raising costs for US firms.
- Fed outlook is dovish, with a 99% probability priced in for a 25 bps September cut, despite green shoots in manufacturing.
- Capital flows are shifting away from the US, with European ETFs seeing $42 billion of inflows while US inflows halved in 2025.
- Employment lags, with the ISM jobs index at 43.8 and national unemployment at 4.2%–4.3%, underscoring fragile labour conditions.
ISM Manufacturing PMI shows first signs of recovery
The ISM Manufacturing PMI increased by 0.7 points in August to 48.7, its highest since late 2024.
Source: Institute for Supply Management, Yahoo Finance
More importantly, the new orders sub-index jumped 4.3 points to 51.4, breaking into expansion for the first time in seven months. This is significant because new orders are a forward-looking gauge of demand, suggesting output could stabilise in the months ahead.
Prices paid eased slightly, down 1.1 points to 63.7, hinting at some relief on input costs. Still, the employment index remains subdued at 43.8, highlighting that job creation in the sector is far from a rebound.
Manufacturing makes up just over 10% of GDP, but it has historically been a leading indicator for investor sentiment and capital flows. Positive surprises in PMI have often coincided with short-term USD gains, with early 2025 readings triggering rallies of 0.7% or more against G10 peers.
What this could mean for the dollar
Experts say a manufacturing recovery could support the USD through three main channels:
1) Growth signal: Expansion in new orders suggests stronger demand, which could boost confidence in the US growth outlook and attract global capital inflows.
2) Monetary policy: Signs of resilience may reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to deliver deep rate cuts, supporting USD yields. In early 2025, the dollar rallied against the euro from 1.12 to 1.02 as markets scaled back easing calls.
3) Trade balance: A recovery in exports could narrow the deficit, strengthening the USD. However, a stronger dollar and tariff costs continue to undermine the competitiveness of US goods.
Counterweights to a stronger dollar
Tariff headwinds
The Trump administration’s 2025 tariff package - 75% on Chinese imports, 25% on Canada, Mexico, and the EU - has raised costs on intermediate goods, which make up about half of all US imports. Economists estimate the tariffs represent a $430 billion tax increase, equivalent to 1.4% of GDP. This risks slowing growth and limiting manufacturing’s rebound. At the same time, tariffs tend to push the USD higher by increasing demand for dollar-based transactions, making US exports less competitive.
Capital outflows
Foreign investors are reallocating away from US markets. Net flows into US equity ETFs dropped to $5.7 billion in 2025, compared with $10.2 billion a year earlier. By contrast, European investors redirected $42 billion into local ETFs. This reduces structural support for the USD, even if manufacturing data improves.
Source: LSEG Lipper
Employment weakness
The ISM Employment Index rose only 0.4 points to 43.8, still signalling contraction. Nationally, payroll growth has slowed, with July adding just 73,000 jobs and unemployment edging up to 4.2%. Economists such as Mark Zandi warn that if job declines accelerate, the economy is “on the precipice” of recession, which would erode USD support.
Federal reserve rate cut outlook
The Federal Reserve has kept rates at 4.25%–4.50% through mid-2025, balancing above-target inflation with weaker growth. Markets are now pricing a near-100% probability of a 25 bps September cut, up from 89% just a week earlier, after July JOLTS job openings fell to 7.18 million - the weakest since September 2024.
Source: CME
Fed officials are divided:
Neel Kashkari has warned that tariffs are raising consumer costs, keeping inflation sticky.
Raphael Bostic acknowledges inflation risks but sees labour weakness pointing to a single cut this year.
Political tension has heightened after Trump’s comments about replacing Jerome Powell, though Fed nominee Stephen Miran pledged to uphold central bank independence.
This policy uncertainty adds volatility to USD trading.
Market impact and scenarios
Bullish USD case: Sustained PMI gains push the index above 50, reducing Fed cut expectations and attracting inflows. This could lift the USD against peers, with forecasts pointing to EUR/USD near 1.19 and USD/JPY at 141 by late 2025.
Bearish USD case: Tariff costs, capital outflows, and weak jobs undercut recovery, driving the dollar lower. J.P. Morgan projects EUR/USD at 1.22 by March 2026.
Neutral case: Modest manufacturing gains are offset by dovish Fed policy, keeping the USD range-bound around current levels.
Dollar index technical insights
At the time of writing, the dollar is seeing a slight rebound close to the $98.29 resistance level - hinting at a potential drawdown. Volume bars slightly dominant bullish pressure - buttressing the case for an uptick unless sellers push back with more conviction. If a strong uptick materialises, it could breach the $98.29 resistance level on the way to the next resistance level at $100.10. Conversely, if we see a drawdown, prices could find support at the $97.70 price level.
Source: Deriv MT5
Investment implications
For traders and portfolio managers, the USD’s outlook in 2025 is finely balanced.
- Short term: PMI surprises and NFP releases will dominate USD moves, with volatility likely around data prints.
- Medium term: Manufacturing recovery could offer support, but tariff and employment headwinds limit upside.
- Long term: Fiscal concerns and global capital reallocation suggest structural risks for the dollar, even if near-term resilience holds.
Investors are expected to monitor PMI releases, labour data, and tariff developments closely. Tactical opportunities may emerge around PMI-driven rallies, but medium-term positioning should hedge against downside risks if recovery momentum stalls.By VT Markets
Oil markets remain caught between supply uncertainty and demand signals, leaving traders on alert for the next move. Speculation around OPEC+ production policy, upcoming US stockpile data, and shifting global consumption trends are all shaping sentiment, keeping volatility alive and market direction unclear.
By IC Markets
Markets are positioned for Fed easing after soft U.S. labor data, meaning today’s focus is on whether inflation releases confirm disinflationary trends. Political developments in Europe/Japan and Chinese trade data also shape risk sentiment, while global bond yields and precious metals remain highly sensitive to policy signals.
By OEXN
A weak August jobs report likely sealed an interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 16–17 policy meeting.
By Naga
Stay ahead of the markets with our weekly update: gold hits record highs, stocks react to rising yields, and the USD leads as traders navigate volatility and Fed signals.
Gold pushed toward $3,600 and silver held near $40.50 as weak US jobs data boosted Fed rate cut bets and pressured the dollar. AUD steadied on strong China trade data, while GBP stayed below 1.3500 and EUR held above 1.1700. Markets remain data-driven, with US inflation, Eurozone GDP, and Fed commentary key for next moves.
By IC Markets
The September 5, 2025, Asian session was characterized by cautious optimism driven by formalized U.S.-Japan trade terms and continued Fed easing expectations, while underlying economic concerns persisted in China and broader labor market weakness in the United States. The most impacted instruments were Japanese equities and the yen due to the trade agreement implementation, while U.S. dollar weakness benefited most Asian currencies marginally.
By OEXN
Macy's (M) stock jumped roughly 20% Wednesday as its turnaround efforts drove same-store sales into positive territory for the first time in three years. In Q2, same-store sales rose 1.9%, its largest increase since early 2022. At 125 stores where Macy’s invested in merchandise and service, sales grew 1.4%.
By FP Markets
Today’s Levels of the Day post will focus largely on the bond market, specifically on the long-end of the curve in the UK and the US. Additionally, given its robust run higher, Spot Silver has also made today’s release!
FX markets eye UK Retail Sales for GBP/USD direction, with data seen softer but key before NFP. EUR/USD holds above 1.1650 ahead of Eurozone GDP, while USD/JPY stays heavy near 147.00 on Fed cut bets and strong JPY data. DXY weakens toward 98.00; USD/CAD slips to 1.3800 as oil steadies. Volatility likely as data drives sentiment.
The Yen weakened on BoJ ambiguity and political risks, while the Kiwi firmed above 0.5850 on soft US labor data. AUD steadied on strong trade surplus, and AUD/JPY hovered near 97.00 with a bullish bias. EUR/USD stayed near 1.1650 ahead of retail sales, and USD/JPY held above 147.00. Markets eye US jobs data and Eurozone figures for fresh direction.
By VT Markets
Sterling faces renewed pressure as bond market swings, fiscal uncertainty, and political shifts test investor confidence. Traders are watching to see whether the pound can steady or slide further.
By Octa
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is down a marginal 0.1% against the US Dollar (USD) and once again underperforming all of the G10 currencies—albeit this time in quiet trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.
By LiteFinance
At 11:00 (GMT+2), July data on the producer price index in the eurozone countries will be presented
By IC Markets
By FP Markets
As both Equity and Bond markets retreated in synchronised fashion yesterday, the 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy faces challenges. The S&P 500 fell 0.7% to 6,415, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.8% to 23,231, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average shedding 0.6% to 45,295.
Silver eased from 14-year highs near $41 as profit-taking emerged, while the US Dollar Index rose toward 98.50 on safe-haven demand. EUR/USD slipped toward 1.1600, USD/JPY held above 147.00, and USD/CNY traded near 7.11 amid cautious PBoC guidance. Markets await US jobs, PMI, and Fed signals for FX and commodity direction.
Oil slid below $64.50 on weak demand and supply worries, while silver surged past $40.50 to 14-year highs on safe-haven flows. The USD firmed, pressuring AUD and CAD, though EUR/USD held above 1.1700. USD/CAD stayed near 1.3750 as oil steadied. Traders eye U.S. inflation, Fed signals, OPEC moves, and Eurozone data for direction.
By Naga
Markets rebound as Fed pivot talk boosts equities, Bitcoin dips to $111K, and commodities & FX react to policy and geopolitical uncertainty.
By FP Markets
In a holiday-shortened week, all eyes will be on the August US jobs report, particularly after July’s release raised questions.
Gold Surges to Five-Month Highs as Fed Cut Bets Lift Precious Metals; Dollar Steady, Oil Pressured |
Gold hit $3,470, a 5-month high, as Fed cut bets and safe-haven demand surged; silver spiked to 2011 levels. USD held firm with USD/JPY above 147.00 and USD/CNY at 7.1072. Oil slid near $63.50 on oversupply and weak demand. Markets eye U.S. PCE data, central bank signals, and global growth risks to set the week’s tone.
The US Dollar extends gains, with DXY near 98.00 ahead of key PCE data. EUR/USD drifts to 1.1650 on weak eurozone growth, while USD/JPY hovers below 147.00 after hotter Tokyo CPI. GBP/USD slips toward 1.3510 on UK fiscal concerns, and USD/CNY steadies around 7.10 as PBoC leans against yuan weakness. Traders brace for PCE to confirm—or challenge—the USD’s bullish momentum.
AUD/USD climbs toward 0.6510 on strong local data and USD weakness, while gold retreats from $3,400 on profit-taking despite Fed cut bets. EUR/JPY holds above 171.00 but French political risks cap gains. USD/INR steadies near 87.80 as tariffs offset dollar softness, while USD/CAD slips toward 1.3750 ahead of US GDP and PCE. Traders brace for key US data to set the tone.
Markets in Flux: Gold Slips on USD Demand as WTI Rallies Amid Geopolitical Concerns | 26th August 20
WTI rallies above $63.50 as fading hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal boost oil prices. Gold struggles near $3,330 despite Fed rate cut bets, while silver holds firm near $39.00. AUD/USD climbs toward 0.6550 on risk appetite and dovish Fed tone, while USD/CAD stays weak near 1.3500 as oil strength supports the loonie. Markets now eye U.S. jobs and inflation data for direction.
By Pepperstone
Market players spent much of last week positioning into Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, with risk trading poorly as traders cut back on core equity longs, lower-quality equity exposures, and reduced USD shorts and crypto positioning. Throughout much of last week, expectations had built that Chair Powell would align with the views expressed by Fed members Schmid, Bostic, and Hammock, who all voiced increased concern about inflation pulling away from the Fed’s 2% target, and along with the improved US PMI data, this was to be enough for traders to act.
Markets react to Powell’s dovish tone as gold dips near $3,365 and NZD/USD consolidates around 0.5860 despite upbeat retail sales. EUR/USD retreats toward 1.1700, while AUD/USD slips to 0.6480 on RBA easing bets. USD/CAD holds near 1.3820 after Friday’s sharp drop. Traders now eye U.S. GDP, PCE inflation, and Canada’s GDP for the next directional cues.
By Naga
Stay ahead of the markets as Powell takes the stage at Jackson Hole. Get the latest on equities, commodities, FX, and geopolitical risks shaping trading this week.
Markets hold steady ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, with gold near $3,330 and silver slipping toward $38.00 as Fed cut bets fade. WTI rallies toward $63.50 on strong U.S. demand and supply concerns. AUD/USD stays under pressure near 0.6410 on dollar strength, while USD/CNY steadies around 7.1320 after a firmer PBoC fix. Traders brace for Powell’s policy signals.
FX markets tread cautiously ahead of Eurozone PMI and FOMC minutes. EUR/USD holds near 1.1650 under dollar pressure, while GBP/USD slips toward 1.3400 on sticky UK inflation. USD/JPY steadies in the mid-147s, EUR/JPY consolidates near 171.70, and USD/CAD hovers at 1.3880 with oil gains offering little relief. Traders eye PMI prints and Fed signals for direction.
AUD/NZD breaks above 1.1000 as the RBNZ’s dovish 25 bp cut highlights policy divergence with the RBA. NZD/USD slips near 0.5850, while AUD/USD softens on China’s steady rates. DXY climbs above 98.00 ahead of FOMC minutes, with Powell’s Jackson Hole speech eyed. WTI dips toward $62.00 on Ukraine peace hopes, keeping geopolitics and central banks in sharp focus.
Gold holds near $3,338 as traders eye Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks, while silver struggles below $38.00 amid fading safe-haven demand. GBP/USD steadies around 1.3500 ahead of UK CPI, with stronger GDP offering support. NZD/USD firms near 0.5925 as markets await the RBNZ decision, while USD/CNY stays anchored after a slightly weaker PBoC fix. Key central bank signals remain in focus.
By Naga
Weekly market recap: Tech-driven stock surge, volatile commodities, and a weakening dollar as traders weigh potential Fed rate cuts and global risks.
By FP Markets
We have quite a busy slate of event risk to get our teeth into this week. In addition to the Jackson Hole Symposium, an update from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and the minutes from the previous US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting claim some of the limelight, as well as inflation data, and manufacturing and services S&P Global PMIs (Purchasing Managers’ Indexes).
Gold steadies near $3,330 as strong US PPI caps safe-haven flows, while silver consolidates around $38.25 with bulls eyeing $38.75. GBP/USD holds near 1.3555 ahead of UK CPI, as dollar strength limits upside. NZD/USD stays around 0.5930 with RBNZ risks looming, while USD/CNY eases after a firmer PBoC fix. Markets await Trump–Zelenskiy talks and key data for direction.
Markets trade mixed ahead of US Retail Sales, with GBP/USD near 1.3550 on UK GDP strength and softer USD. Silver holds at $38.00, AUD/USD steady near 0.6530 despite weak China data, while AUD/JPY slips to 95.60 on strong Japan GDP. USD/CHF hovers at 0.8070 as hot US PPI supports the dollar. Traders eye Retail Sales for the next catalyst.
Gold climbs above $3,365 on Fed rate-cut bets, while oil slides toward $62.00 on oversupply fears. USD/JPY dips near 146.50 on BoJ–Fed policy divergence, and the PBoC’s firmer yuan fix keeps USD/CNY under pressure. AUD/USD rises to 0.6560 after strong jobs data. Traders eye US PPI and geopolitical cues for the next market move.
By Deriv
Bitcoin has pulled back to around 118,800 after briefly breaking above 122,000 earlier this week. While some traders see this as a sign of short-term exhaustion, key valuation metrics suggest the market may be underpricing the asset’s long-term potential.
By OEXN
The latest U.S. inflation data came in unchanged from the previous period but below market expectations, reinforcing the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Following the release, the U.S. dollar weakened, although the move lacked the momentum seen after the Non-Farm Payrolls earlier this month.
By Octa
- The Yen extends gains for the second consecutive day, favoured by USD weakness.
- Moderate US inflation data boosted hopes of immediate cuts by the Fed, and sent the US Dollar tumbling
- USD/JPY might activate a Bearish Flag formation below 147.00
By Octa
The Euro (EUR) is entering Wednesday’s NA session with an impressive 0.5% gain against the US Dollar (USD), rising in tandem with most of its G10 peers in an environment of broadbased USD weakness.
Gold nears $3,350 and silver tests $38.20 as soft US CPI boosts Fed rate-cut bets. USD/CAD climbs to 1.3780 on weaker oil and CAD, while NZD/USD slips below 0.5950 on China deflation fears. AUD/USD steadies near 0.6500 amid RBA cut expectations. Markets eye Fed signals and geopolitical risks for next moves.
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