UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations

The University of Michigan's Inflation Expectations gauge captures how much consumers anticipate prices will change over the coming 12 months. It comes out in two rounds—a preliminary release that tends to pack a bigger punch, followed by a revised update two weeks later.

Next event - Friday 19 December 2025 15:00

Previous
4.1
Forecast
4.1
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is medium.

The consensus forecast for UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations is 4.1. A higher value than forecast tends to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Most recent - Friday 5 December 2025 15:00

Previous
4.5
Forecast
-
Actual
4.1

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations was 4.1.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Friday 5 December 2025 15:00
-
4.1
Friday 21 November 2025 15:00
4.7
4.5
Friday 7 November 2025 15:00
-
4.7
Friday 24 October 2025 14:00
4.6
4.6
Friday 10 October 2025 14:00
-
4.6
Friday 26 September 2025 14:00
4.8
4.7
Friday 12 September 2025 14:00
-
4.8
Friday 29 August 2025 14:00
4.9
4.8
Friday 15 August 2025 14:00
-
4.9
Friday 1 August 2025 14:00
-
4.5
Friday 18 July 2025 14:00
-
4.4
Friday 27 June 2025 14:00
5.1
5
Friday 13 June 2025 14:00
-
5.1
Friday 30 May 2025 14:00
7.3
6.6
Friday 16 May 2025 14:00
-
7.3
Friday 25 April 2025 14:00
6.7
6.5
Friday 11 April 2025 14:00
-
6.7
Friday 28 March 2025 14:00
-
5
Friday 14 March 2025 14:00
-
4.9
Friday 21 February 2025 15:00
-
4.3
Friday 7 February 2025 15:00
-
4.3
Friday 24 January 2025 15:00
-
3.3
Friday 10 January 2025 15:00
-
3.3
Friday 20 December 2024 15:00
-
2.8
Friday 6 December 2024 15:00
-
2.9
Friday 22 November 2024 15:00
-
2.6
Friday 8 November 2024 15:00
-
2.6
Friday 25 October 2024 14:00
-
2.7
Friday 11 October 2024 14:00
-
2.9
Friday 27 September 2024 14:00
-
2.7
Friday 13 September 2024 14:00
-
2.7
Friday 30 August 2024 14:00
-
2.8
Friday 16 August 2024 14:00
-
2.9
Friday 26 July 2024 14:00
-
2.9
Friday 12 July 2024 14:00
-
2.9
Friday 28 June 2024 14:00
-
3
Friday 14 June 2024 14:00
-
3.3
Friday 24 May 2024 14:00
-
3.3
Friday 10 May 2024 14:00
-
3.5
Friday 26 April 2024 14:00
-
3.2
Friday 12 April 2024 14:00
-
3.1
Thursday 28 March 2024 14:00
-
2.9
Friday 15 March 2024 14:00
-
3
Friday 1 March 2024 15:00
-
3
Friday 16 February 2024 15:00
-
3
Friday 2 February 2024 15:00
-
2.9
Friday 19 January 2024 15:00
-
2.9
Friday 22 December 2023 15:00
-
3.1
Friday 8 December 2023 15:00
-
3.1
Wednesday 22 November 2023 15:00
-
4.5
Friday 10 November 2023 15:00
-
4.4
Friday 27 October 2023 14:00
-
4.2
Friday 13 October 2023 14:00
-
3.8
Friday 29 September 2023 14:00
-
3.2
Friday 15 September 2023 14:00
-
3.1
Friday 25 August 2023 14:00
-
3.5
Friday 11 August 2023 14:00
-
3.3
Friday 28 July 2023 14:00
-
3.4
Friday 14 July 2023 14:00
-
3.4
Friday 30 June 2023 14:00
-
3.3
Friday 16 June 2023 14:00
-
3.3
Friday 26 May 2023 14:00
-
4.2
Friday 12 May 2023 14:00
-
4.5
Friday 28 April 2023 14:00
-
4.6
Friday 14 April 2023 14:00
-
4.6
Friday 31 March 2023 14:00
-
3.6
Friday 17 March 2023 14:00
-
3.8
Friday 24 February 2023 15:00
-
4.1
Friday 10 February 2023 15:00
-
4.2
Friday 27 January 2023 15:00
-
3.9
Friday 13 January 2023 15:00
-
4
Friday 23 December 2022 15:00
-
4.4

Economic context

Recent economic data has been moderately bearish for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations result:

PreviousLatest
Consumer Price Index (YoY)Bearish change3%2.7%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)Bearish change3%2.6%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change237K224K
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing SurveyBearish change-1.7-10.2
S&P Global Composite PMIBearish change54.253
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIBearish change52.251.8
S&P Global Services PMIBearish change54.152.9
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)Bearish change0.4%0.1%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)Bearish change3.7%3.5%
Nonfarm PayrollsBullish change-105K64K
Labor Force Participation RateBullish change62.4%62.5%
U6 Underemployment RateBullish change8%-5%
Unemployment RateBearish change4.4%4.6%
Retail Sales (MoM)Bearish change0.1%0%
Retail Sales Control GroupBullish change-0.1%0.8%
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)Bullish change0.1%0.4%
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.4%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)Bearish change3.8%3.7%
Nonfarm PayrollsBearish change108K-105K
ADP Employment Change 4-week averageBullish change4.75K16.25K
NY Empire State Manufacturing IndexBearish change18.7-3.9
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change192K236K
Fed Interest Rate DecisionBearish change4%3.75%
Interest Rate Projections - 1st year(no change)3.4%3.4%
Interest Rate Projections - 2nd year(no change)3.1%3.1%
Interest Rate Projections - 3rd year(no change)3.1%3.1%
Interest Rate Projections - Current(no change)3.6%3.6%
Interest Rate Projections - Longer(no change)3%3%
Monthly Budget StatementBullish change$-284B$-173B
Employment Cost IndexBearish change0.9%0.8%
ADP Employment Change 4-week averageBullish change-13.5K4.75K
Michigan Consumer Expectations IndexBullish change5155
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBullish change5153.3
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBearish change3.4%3.2%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(no change)0.2%0.2%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bearish change2.9%2.8%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(no change)0.3%0.3%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bullish change2.7%2.8%
Personal Income (MoM)(no change)0.4%0.4%
Personal SpendingBearish change0.5%0.3%

About UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:University of Michigan
Category:Consumption
Frequency:Monthly
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