Fed Interest Rate Decision

The US Federal Reserve has a policy meeting every five to eight weeks, and its single most significant decision is interest rates. A rise is taken to mean a healthy economy, and is bullish for USD. A rate cut sends the opposite signal. If the rate is left unchanged, the market can still be significantly removed by remarks during the subsequent FOMC Press Conference, starting 30 minutes after the rate announcement.

Most recent - Wednesday 18 March 2026 18:00

Previous
3.75%
Forecast
3.75%
Actual
3.75%

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Fed Interest Rate Decision was 3.75% against a forecast of 3.75%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Wednesday 18 March 2026 18:00
3.75%
3.75%
Wednesday 28 January 2026 19:00
3.75%
3.75%
Wednesday 10 December 2025 19:00
3.75%
3.75%
Wednesday 29 October 2025 18:00
4%
4%
Wednesday 17 September 2025 18:00
4.25%
4.25%
Wednesday 30 July 2025 18:00
4.5%
4.5%
Wednesday 18 June 2025 18:00
4.5%
4.5%
Wednesday 7 May 2025 18:00
4.5%
4.5%
Wednesday 19 March 2025 18:00
4.5%
4.5%
Wednesday 29 January 2025 19:00
4.5%
4.5%
Wednesday 18 December 2024 19:00
4.5%
4.5%
Thursday 7 November 2024 19:00
4.75%
4.75%
Wednesday 18 September 2024 18:00
5.25%
5%
Wednesday 31 July 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 12 June 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 1 May 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 20 March 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 31 January 2024 19:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 13 December 2023 19:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 1 November 2023 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 20 September 2023 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 26 July 2023 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 14 June 2023 18:00
5.25%
5.25%
Wednesday 3 May 2023 18:00
5.25%
5.25%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Fed Interest Rate Decision result:

PreviousLatest
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBearish change48.848.7
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBearish change55.853.5
ISM Manufacturing PMIBullish change52.452.7
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBullish change70.578.3
Retail Sales (MoM)Bullish change-0.1%0.6%
Retail Sales Control GroupBullish change0.2%0.5%
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)Bullish change0%0.5%
ADP Employment ChangeBearish change66K62K
JOLTS Job OpeningsBearish change7.24M6.882M
Chicago PMIBearish change57.752.8
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.3%0.1%
Michigan Consumer Expectations IndexBearish change54.151.7
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBearish change55.553.3
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationsBullish change3.4%3.8%
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation(no change)3.2%3.2%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change205K210K
S&P Global Composite PMIBearish change51.951.4
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIBullish change51.652.4
S&P Global Services PMIBearish change51.751.1
Nonfarm ProductivityBearish change2.8%1.8%
Unit Labor CostsBullish change2.8%4.4%
ADP Employment Change 4-week averageBullish change9K10K
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bearish change-6.8%-17.6%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change213K205K
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing SurveyBullish change16.318.1

About Fed Interest Rate Decision

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:Federal Reserve
Category:Interest Rates
Frequency:Weekly/week-based
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